COLD, COLD, COLD, COLD, COLD BR$#%&"!

I think the title might be self-explanatory as of now. But first:


LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECAST


This week it's moving around normal, with a trend to slightly cooler conditions for today, tomorrow and Saturday. Moisture from the gulf could enhance some orographic precipitation for Thursday and some scattered showers by Saturday, yet rain amounts should generally be less than 1/4 of an inch. Nuevo León, Coahuila and Tamaulipas should expect good conditions until Monday, with temperatures moving from the 40s and 50s early in the morning reaching 70s and 80s by the afternoon. Partially cloudy skies should predominate the next 4 days.

NATIONAL FORECAST

ACAPULCO

MONTERREY

CANCÚN

MEXICO CITY

UPDATE POTENTIAL SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK

Since last week, computer models started trending to a serious cold period during the first week of February for Southern Texas and the entire NE Mexico.  The GFS showed the cold and then fold back, while the Canadian, the European and the JMA show now  consistently a severe period of cold weather through the first 7 days of February with temperatures plummeting below zero for Monterrey and most parts of the region with the potential of a snow/ice threat for even as south as Lower Rio Grande Valley. 

Now, quoting JB:

" Well, we got a huge disruptive problem coming next week, and with it, the threat of ice deep into the heart of Texas (I could see it getting to I-10 in western Texas for instance, and a freeze to the lower RGV which is almost unheard of (I think it is, but I haven't looked at everything yet) to the lower Rio Grande Valley."

Now what do the models look like?

GFS = Shows a snow storm developing over northern Texas, moving NE. Still underestimating cold and moving the air mass too far east. 

ECMWF = Shows temperatures below freezing falling below -5°C for 2 days, enough moisture that might trigger some snow showers with some wintry mix. Really cold week in general.

CANADIAN= Just take a look:

So pretty much, next week highlight will be the severe cold event throughout the region and what surprises it might show us down here! Just to give you an insight of how cold it might get, the european shows the 540mb SOUTH of Monterrey for around 24 hours. THAT IS FREAKING COLD!!

Cheers.